Forecasting s-curves is hard

https://constancecrozier.com/2020/04/16/forecasting-s-curves-is-hard/ [constancecrozier.com]

2020-04-19 14:30

> S-curves have only three parameters, and so it is perhaps impressive that they fit a variety of systems so well. Broadly, the three parameters describe the initial growth rate, the level-off rate, and the value at which it levels-off. Therefore, if you can estimate these three numbers, then you have the trend curve. Many of us will have learnt in school that if there are three parameters to be found, you need three data points to define the function. This would suggest that you could perfectly predict the level-off point based on only three observations (spoiler: you canâ€™t).

source: HN