The Panic of 2020? Oh, I Made a Ton of Money—and So Did You
> Hindsight bias suggests that one day you’ll look back on all of this and... lie
> In a classic experiment in 1972, researchers asked people to estimate the likelihood that various positive and negative outcomes might result from President Richard Nixon’s upcoming trips to China and Russia that year. We now call those visits “historic” because they thawed decades of hostility between the U.S. and the communist powers. In advance, no one knew whether the trips would accomplish anything. About two weeks after Nixon’s visits, 71% of people recalled putting better odds on his success than they had at the time. Four months on, 81% remembered being more sure Nixon would succeed than they had said beforehand.
> In short, learning what did happen impedes you from retrieving what you thought would happen.
Quite a few studies in this area, all with the same result.